We get asked this all the time:

“Is it still a seller’s market, or have higher interest rates finally slowed everything down?”

The answer is yes, the Peninsula is still very much favoring sellers.

But there’s an important catch.

This is not the kind of market where you can put a sign in the yard, pick an ambitious price, and assume buyers will line up.

Buyers are still out there. They are still competing. And when the right home comes on the market, they can move very quickly.

They are also more selective than they were a few years ago.

That is really the story of today’s market.

A home that is beautifully prepared, thoughtfully priced, and positioned correctly can receive tremendous attention. A home that feels overpriced, dated, difficult to understand, or simply not quite worth the number can sit.

Same market. Very different results.

What the Numbers Are Telling Us

According to Redfin’s September 2026 San Mateo County data:

• The median sale price was $1,727,384, up 5.3% year over year.

• Homes spent a median of 14 days on the market, compared with 19 days a year earlier.

• The average sale-to-list ratio was 104.2%.

• 58.1% of homes sold above asking.

• A total of 434 homes sold, down from 472 during the same period last year.

So fewer homes changed hands, but the homes that did sell moved faster, and more than half sold above their asking prices.

That sounds like a strong seller’s market.

And it is.

But those numbers need context.

“Sold Over Asking” Doesn’t Tell the Whole Story

One of the biggest mistakes we see buyers make is assuming the list price is the value of the home.

On the Peninsula, that is not always true.

Sometimes the asking price is designed to create attention and competition. A home may be intentionally listed below where comparable sales suggest it will ultimately sell.

So when you hear that a home sold 10% or 15% over asking, that doesn’t automatically mean its value suddenly jumped by that amount.

It may simply mean the pricing strategy worked.

That is why we spend so much time looking beyond the list price.

We want to know:

What have the best comparable homes actually sold for?

How does this home compare in condition, location, lot size, floor plan, views, and overall appeal?

What do the disclosures tell us?

How much competition is there?

And perhaps most importantly, how has the property been positioned?

The asking price starts the conversation.

It does not always tell you where the conversation will end.

There Is No Single “Peninsula Market”

This is another thing that gets lost in broad market reports.

San Mateo County is not one market.

A home in downtown San Carlos behaves differently from a home along the coast.

A turnkey home in Redwood City may attract a completely different buyer pool than a fixer a few blocks away.

A condominium, an entry-level single-family home, a move-up property, and a Hillsborough estate can all be moving in very different directions at exactly the same time.

Even within the same neighborhood, two homes with similar square footage can receive completely different responses.

Why?

Because buyers are buying more than square footage.

They are buying the street, the setting, the floor plan, the light, the yard, the condition, the schools, the walkability, and that hard-to-define feeling they get when they walk through the front door.

That is why we would never tell someone what their home is worth based on a countywide median.

The real story is always much more local.

And Then There Are Interest Rates

There is no question that mortgage rates are affecting affordability.

As of October 15, 2026, Freddie Mac reported the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.40%.

For buyers financing a large portion of their purchase, that matters tremendously. Monthly payments go up, purchasing power goes down, and some buyers simply decide to wait.

But the Peninsula is also unusual.

We continue to see buyers with substantial down payments, equity from another property, family assistance, stock proceeds, and cash.

Recent reporting found that roughly 30% of purchases in San Francisco and San Mateo counties between April and June 2026 were completed without financing.

So while rates absolutely matter, they do not affect every buyer in the same way.

That is one reason we can have high mortgage rates and still see intense competition for certain homes.

What Sellers Need to Understand Right Now

If you are thinking about selling, this market offers real opportunity.

But the details matter more than ever.

Preparation Matters

We have always believed that preparation is one of the most important parts of selling a home.

And preparation does not necessarily mean remodeling everything.

Sometimes the biggest difference comes from relatively simple improvements:

Fresh paint.

Updated lighting.

Refinished floors.

Landscaping.

Repairs that buyers would otherwise notice immediately.

Editing furniture.

Staging.

Better photography.

Even something as simple as replacing a dated light fixture or improving a tired entry can change the way a buyer experiences the home.

We help our sellers decide where money is worth spending and, just as importantly, where it is not.

The goal is not to make a home perfect.

The goal is to make buyers walk in and feel that the home has been cared for, considered, and is ready for them.

Pricing Is Part of the Marketing

Pricing a home is not about choosing the highest number we can justify.

It is about choosing the number that gives the property the best opportunity to perform.

That means looking at recent sales, current competition, condition, buyer search ranges, neighborhood demand, appraisal considerations, and the seller’s timing.

Price too high, and you can lose the most important part of the marketing period: the first week or two.

Price strategically, and you may create enough interest to give the seller options.

And no, that does not always mean pricing dramatically low.

Every home requires its own strategy.

Selling Above Asking Is Not the Goal

This one is important.

We all love the headline:

“Sold $300,000 over asking!”

It sounds great.

But it does not necessarily tell you whether the seller got the best possible outcome.

If a home is listed at $1.8 million and sells for $2 million, it sold $200,000 over asking.

If another comparable home is listed at $1.98 million and also sells for $2 million, the seller received exactly the same price.

What matters is not the distance between list price and sale price.

What matters is the final result.

Price.

Terms.

Certainty.

Timing.

And whether the seller accomplished what mattered most to them.

That is what we focus on.

What Buyers Need to Understand

For buyers, this market requires a slightly different mindset.

You have to be ready.

But you also have to remain disciplined.

Know Your Financing Before You Fall in Love

Get your financing fully reviewed before the right house appears.

A pre-qualification is not the same thing as a strong pre-approval, and in a competitive situation that difference can matter.

Your lender should have a clear understanding of your income, assets, credit, and overall financial picture before you write an offer.

The stronger your preparation, the more confident you can be when it is time to act.

Stop Focusing Only on the Asking Price

The right question is not:

“How much over asking should we offer?”

The better question is:

“What is this home actually worth based on the evidence?”

Sometimes the answer will be well above asking.

Sometimes it will not.

Your job is not to win at any cost.

Your job is to understand the market well enough to make a strong offer without abandoning your own comfort level.

Move Quickly, but Don’t Get Reckless

With a median of 14 days on market, desirable homes can move quickly.

That means disclosures need to be reviewed early. Comparable sales need to be studied. Your lender needs to be available. Questions need to be asked.

Moving quickly does not mean rushing blindly.

It means doing the homework soon enough that you can make a thoughtful decision while the opportunity is still available.

What If You’re Selling and Buying?

This is where things can get complicated.

A strong seller’s market may help you sell your current home, while making the next purchase more competitive.

We spend a lot of time helping clients think through this sequence before anything goes on the market.

Depending on the situation, that may mean:

• Buying before selling

• Selling first and negotiating a rent-back

• Using bridge financing

• Negotiating an extended closing

• Purchasing with a sale contingency

• Moving temporarily between homes

There is no one perfect answer.

What matters is having the plan before the first offer arrives.

So, Is the Peninsula Still a Seller’s Market?

Yes.

The numbers support that.

Homes are selling faster than they were a year ago. Median prices are higher. More than half of San Mateo County sales are closing above asking.

But this is also a much more discerning market.

Buyers will compete aggressively for homes they believe are worth competing for.

They will also walk away from homes that feel overpriced or poorly presented.

That distinction is everything.

For sellers, preparation, positioning, and pricing matter enormously.

For buyers, knowledge, financial readiness, and the ability to move decisively matter just as much.

The market may favor sellers, but the real advantage belongs to the person who understands the particular home, the neighborhood, and the strategy behind the transaction.

And that is why we always come back to the same thing:

The market headline is interesting. Your specific market is what matters.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in Redwood City, San Carlos, Belmont, Menlo Park, San Mateo, Burlingame, Hillsborough, Palo Alto, Los Altos, or the surrounding Peninsula communities, we are always happy to talk through what we are seeing and what it may mean for you.

Kat Bedbury
650-740-4494 | Team@BedburyGroup.com
DRE #01817656 | Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty

Your Dreams, Non-Negotiable®

About Kat Bedbury and The Bedbury Group

Kat Bedbury is a residential Realtor® with Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty and co-founder of the Bedbury Group. Kat and her team work with buyers, sellers, investors, relocation clients, move-up buyers, and homeowners preparing to downsize throughout San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties. Their approach is highly hands-on, including advising sellers on cosmetic improvements, preparation, positioning, and marketing before a home ever reaches the market.

Market statistics in this article reflect Redfin’s San Mateo County data through September 2026. Mortgage-rate information reflects Freddie Mac’s national weekly survey as of October 15, 2026. Market conditions, interest rates, and individual property values change frequently. This article provides general information and should not be considered financial, lending, legal, or tax advice.