At the very top of the market, buyers are spending $10 million or more on properties where much of the value is simply in the land. But this isn’t only a story about Atherton and $30 million homes.

We’re seeing signs of the same underlying demand much closer to home.

By Kat Bedbury and The Bedbury Group | September 18, 2026

Recently, fellow Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty agent Chris Iverson hosted an open house where every single buyer who walked through the door had come down from San Francisco.

Not most of them. All of them.

That caught my attention because it reflects something we’ve been seeing ourselves: more buyers are looking south from San Francisco and reconsidering the Peninsula.

At the same time, some people who moved away during the pandemic are returning as employers tighten their in-office requirements.

A recent Redwood City Pulse report highlighted both trends and the pressure they’re putting on an already competitive Midpeninsula housing market. (Redwood City Pulse)

Why Now?

There isn’t one reason.

Some San Francisco buyers want more space, different school options, and a lifestyle that still gives them a manageable commute. Others left the Bay Area when remote work became the norm and are now coming back because they need to be closer to the office. And then there’s AI.

This part is worth paying attention to because we now have actual numbers behind it.

According to CBRE, the Bay Area added more than 20,000 AI jobs in the past year and now has nearly 99,000 AI-skilled workers. AI-related positions account for 57% of Bay Area tech job postings, compared with just 20% in 2022. At the same time, fully remote tech job postings have dropped significantly. (CBRE)

That combination matters for real estate. More high-income workers are tied to the Bay Area, more companies want employees in the office, and many of those employees are deciding where they want to live.

When Buyers Are Literally Paying for the Land

Some of the numbers at the very top of the Peninsula market are extraordinary. A one-acre Atherton property listed for $7.8 million sold for $10.7 million. A 2.5-acre property near the Menlo Circus Club was listed for $25.5 million. A Portola Valley estate sold for $56 million.

Agents interviewed for the report described tech buyers purchasing homes from roughly $12 million to $34 million, and in some cases spending $10 million or more primarily for the land, with plans to rebuild or substantially renovate. (Redwood City Pulse)

When you hear someone say buyers are “paying for dirt,” that’s what they mean. They’re not necessarily paying $10 million for the house. They’re paying for the location, lot, privacy, and opportunity to create what they want there. That is obviously a very different market from most Peninsula home purchases. But it tells us something important about how much capital is looking for a home here.

And We’re Seeing the Ripple Effect

The dramatic examples in the report come primarily from Atherton, Portola Valley, Palo Alto, Los Altos Hills, and surrounding luxury communities. I wouldn’t take a $10 million Atherton land sale and use it to predict what a home in San Carlos or Redwood City will do.

Real estate is much more local than that.

But we are seeing some of the same ingredients at more typical Peninsula price points: limited inventory, serious buyers, and strong competition for homes that check the right boxes.

Earlier this summer, we listed 3020 Brittan Avenue in San Carlos for $1,998,000. Within one week, we had multiple offers. It sold for $2,460,000, or $462,000 over asking.

One sale doesn’t establish a market trend, but it is certainly consistent with what we’re seeing: when the right home is properly prepared, positioned, and marketed, buyers can still respond very aggressively.

There’s broader evidence of that strength as well.

The Associated Press reported that luxury-home sales in the San Francisco metro area increased 39.3% during the first half of 2026 compared with the same period last year. Middle-market home sales also increased, by 15.1%. (AP News)

So while the luxury market is getting most of the headlines, there is activity further down the market too.

What Does This Mean If You’re Buying?

It doesn’t mean every house is going to receive 10 offers. It does mean you need to know exactly what is happening in the neighborhood and price range where you’re looking. If a great property comes on the market, preparation matters.

Is your financing completely lined up?

Do you know what comparable homes are actually selling for?

Do you understand how much competition there is likely to be?

And if you’re competing against a cash buyer, do you know how to make the rest of your offer as strong as possible?

A headline about the Peninsula market isn’t enough. The strategy needs to be specific to the house.

And If You’re Selling?

This is where I would be especially careful about reading the headlines and assuming your home will automatically sell over asking. Even in a strong market, buyers are selective. The homes that generate extraordinary results usually get a lot of things right before they ever hit the market.

Preparation. Positioning. Promotion.

Price matters. Condition matters. Presentation matters.

And understanding what buyers are responding to right now matters. We’ve seen Peninsula homes receive a dozen or more offers. We’ve also seen buyers walk away from perfectly nice homes because something about the price, condition, location, or floor plan didn’t make sense to them.

A strong market creates opportunity. It doesn’t eliminate the need for strategy.

The Bigger Picture

I think that’s the real takeaway from all of this.

Yes, there is enormous money moving through parts of the Peninsula right now. Yes, AI is creating jobs and wealth in the Bay Area. And yes, we’re seeing buyers move south from San Francisco and others return to the area as workplace expectations change. (Redwood City Pulse)

But you shouldn’t make a real estate decision because someone paid $10.7 million for an acre in Atherton. You should make it based on what buyers are doing in your neighborhood, at your price point, with homes like yours.

That’s the conversation we have with our clients every day.

If you’re wondering what these changes mean for the value of your home, or you’re trying to figure out how competitive you need to be as a buyer, reach out to us. We’re happy to look at the actual numbers with you and tell you what we’re seeing on the ground. Because headlines tell you what’s happening somewhere.

Good local advice tells you what it means for you.

About Kat Bedbury and The Bedbury Group

Kat Bedbury is a Realtor® with Golden Gate Sotheby’s International Realty and co-founder of The Bedbury Group, serving buyers and sellers throughout San Mateo and Santa Clara Counties. The team combines deep local market knowledge with a strategic approach to preparation, positioning, promotion, and negotiation.

General guidance only, not legal, tax, or financial advice, and not a guarantee of future property values or investment returns. Figures and quotes about the broader Peninsula market are drawn from a news report published by Redwood City Pulse and affiliated Bay Area News Group papers on September 9, 2026, plus additional financial reporting on the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs current as of September 14, 2026. Conditions can and do change. Verify current market data for your specific neighborhood and price range before making a decision.